Impact of public health interventions to curb SARS-CoV-2 spread assessed by an evidence-educated Delphi panel and tailored SEIR model.

AIM: To use a Delphi-panel-based assessment of the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) in order to retrospectively approximate and to prospectively predict the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic progression via a SEIR model (susceptible, exposed, infectious, removed). METHODS: We applied an evidence-educated Delphi-panel approach to elicit the impact of NPIs on the SARS-CoV-2 transmission rate R0 in Germany. Effectiveness was defined as the product of efficacy and compliance. A discrete, deterministic SEIR model with time step of 1 day, a latency period of 1.8 days, duration of infectiousness of 5 days, and a share of the total population of 15% assumed to be protected by immunity was developed in order to estimate the impact of selected NPI measures on the course of the pandemic. The model was populated with the Delphi-panel results and varied in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Efficacy and compliance estimates for the three most effective NPIs were as follows: test and isolate 49% (efficacy)/78% (compliance), keeping distance 42%/74%, personal protection masks (cloth masks or other face masks) 33%/79%. Applying all NPI effectiveness estimates to the SEIR model resulted in a valid replication of reported occurrence of the German SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. A combination of four NPIs at consented compliance rates might curb the CoViD-19 pandemic. CONCLUSION: Employing an evidence-educated Delphi-panel approach can support SARS-CoV-2 modelling. Future curbing scenarios require a combination of NPIs. A Delphi-panel-based NPI assessment and modelling might support public health policy decision making by informing sequence and number of needed public health measures. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10389-021-01566-2.

Predictors of Changes in Physical Activity and Sedentary Behavior during the COVID-19 Pandemic in a Turkish Migrant Cohort in Germany.

The new coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the resulting response measures have led to severe limitations of people's exercise possibilities with diminished physical activity (PA) and increased sedentary behavior (SB). Since for migrant groups in Germany, no data is available, this study aimed to investigate factors associated with changes in PA and SB in a sample of Turkish descent. Participants of a prospective cohort study (adults of Turkish descent, living in Berlin, Germany) completed a questionnaire regarding COVID-19 related topics including PA and SB since February 2020. Changes in PA and SB were described, and sociodemographic, migrant-related, and health-related predictors of PA decrease and SB increase were determined using multivariable regression analyses. Of 106 participants, 69% reported a decline of PA, 36% reported an increase in SB. PA decrease and SB increase seemed to be associated with inactivity before the pandemic as well as with the female sex. SB increase appeared to be additionally associated with educational level and BMI. The COVID-19 pandemic and the response measures had persistent detrimental effects on this migrant population. Since sufficient PA before the pandemic had the strongest association with maintaining PA and SB during the crisis, the German government and public health professionals should prioritize PA promotion in this vulnerable group.